Sunday is the 85th Academy Awards and it is one of the more exciting races in awhile. As of right now, Argo has the most momentum going into Sunday's ceremony. Ben Affleck's film on the rescue of US diplomats in Iran during the hostage crisis has taken home all of the Guild awards, as well as the Best Drama Picture at the Golden Globes. It would appear Argo is on course to win Best Picture but Lincoln could still win. At least it probably has the best shot to beat Argo. Can Argo win without a Best Director nod? For me, the big question and surprise will be who is going to win Best Director. This should be a no brainer for Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), but with her and Ben Affleck not being nominated, it is all up in the air. The most likely scenario is for Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) or Ang Lee (Life of Pi) to pull off the win, but I'm hoping for Michael Haneke (Amour) to upset and win the prize. I also really hope Roger Deakins wins for his crisp, stylish lensing of (Skyfall), but the ten time nominee will most likely be overlooked for the 3D brilliance of Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi). Here is a link of all the nominees and my "who should" and "who will" win picks after the jump.
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Will win: Argo
I think its a foregone conclusion that Argo will win, but it is no where in the class of Zero Dark Thirty, which should win hands down. If not that picture, I would have to go with Silver Linings Playbook.
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Its a tight call for who should win, but Phoenix's crazed walk, drunken speaking and all out decent into madness and vivid desperation tops Day-Lewis in my open. Who will win is over and done with. Day-Lewis wins and he is very brilliant in that film.
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Will win: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Best actress is the tightest race of them all. My pick for the longest time was Jennifer Lawrence barely nudging out Jessica Chastain, but I really believe that the best performance from any actor this past year was legendary French actress Emmanuelle Riva in Amour. Going with my gut on this one.
Should win: Michael Haneke (Amour)
Will win: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Should be Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty. Enough said. I'm thinking it will be Spielberg or Lee. Really hope Haneke gets the win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Will win: Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Probably the second tightest race behind Best Actress. All nominees are solid and deserving. The weakest is Arkin for Argo but he is absolutely fantastic in that film. DeNiro I think will win and his emotional embrace and range is wonderful in SLP, but Waltz and Jones are amazing as well. It should be Hoffman for The Master all the way. Deep, intelligent, controlled.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should win: Amy Adams (The Master)
Will win: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
It is over. Adams is graceful and mesmerizing but Hathaway has it sealed up.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Should win: ParaNorman
Will win: Brave
Should win: Roger Deakins (Skyfall)
Will win: Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi)
I really hope Deakins finally gets his over due win!
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should win: Eiko Ishioka (Mirror Mirror)
Will win: Jacqueline Durran (Anna Karenina)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Should win: The Gatekeepers
Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Should win: Inocente
Will win: Inocente
BEST FILM EDITING
Should win: Dylan Tichenor & William Goldenberg (Zero Dark Thirty)
Will win: William Goldenberg (Argo)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Should win: Amour
Will win: Amour
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Should win: Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater & Tami Lane (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Will win: Lisa Westcott & Julie Dartnell (Les Miserables)
BEST MUSIC: ORIGINAL SCORE
Should win: Thomas Newman (Skyfall)
Will win: Mychael Danna (Life of Pi)
BEST MUSIC: ORIGINAL SONG
Should win: "Skyfall" from Skyfall music and lyrics by Adele & Paul Epworth
Will win: "Skyfall" from Skyfall music and lyrics by Adele & Paul Epworth
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Should win: Anna Karenina: Sarah Greenwood (Production Design); Kate Spencer (Set Decoration)
Will win: Les Miserables: Eve Stewart (Production Design); Anna Lynch-Robinson (Set Decoration)
BEST SHORT FILM: ANIMATED
Should win: Paperman
Will win: Paperman
BEST SHORT FILM: LIVE ACTION
Should win: Curfew
Will win: Curfew
BEST SOUND EDITING
Should win: Paul N.J. Ottoson (Zero Dark Thirty)
Will win: Erik Aadahl & Ethan Van der Ryn (Argo)
BEST SOUND MIXING
Should win: Scott Milan, Greg P. Russell & Stuart Wilson (Skyfall)
Will win: Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson & Simon Hayes (Les Miserables)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Should win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Will win: Life of Pi
BEST WRITING: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should win: David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Will win: Chris Terrio (Argo)
A very open race and I would not be surprised if Tony Kushner wins for Lincoln.
BEST WRITING: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should win: Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
Will win: Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
If Zero Dark Thirty is going to win a major award, which it should, it has to be this one. This is a tight category as well. I honestly think Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola's screenplay for Moonrise Kingdom should be right there with Boal's work. Tarantino is too much in love with himself and his use of words, although it is a great script, for the academy. Boal has to win, and if not him I'm going with Michael Haneke's script for Amour. Powerful, devastating, deep.