Sunday, January 5, 2014

Updated 2014 OSCAR predictions

     Here are my updated 2014 Oscar Predictions. Of course, this is who I believe will be nominated and not who I personally feel should or want to be nominated. Many changes with the PGA and WGA nominations. A lot of love for David O. Russell's American Hustle, which I am beginning to think might be the frontrunner. Safe, entertaining, well-acted and something the old softies in the Academy can digest with ease. It will, along with the far more relevant and important 12 Years a Slave, end up with the most nominations I am sure. I really hope the Coen's Inside Llewyn Davis gets proper attention, but some of the precursors seem to be over looking it. Only a couple of months  away from the big show and there is always some kind of surprise during the nominations. I did not pick everything. Just what I predicted from last month. Nominations will be announced on January 16, 2014. You can check out my initial predictions from last month here. Let's go!!!

  1. 12 Years a Slave
  2. American Hustle
  3. Gravity
  4. Nebraska
  5. Captain Phillips
  6. Her
  7. The Wolf of Wall Street
  8. Inside Llewyn Davis
  9. Dallas Buyers Club
  10. Blue Jasmine
  • Saving Mr. Banks
  • August: Osage County
  • Fruitvale Station
  • Lone Survivor
  • All Is Lost
I feel the top nine are locks and if there is ten, I believe Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine might edge out John Lee Hancock's Saving Mr. Banks and J.C. Chandor's All Is Lost. Dallas Buyers Club has got some legs and definitely is one of the top ten films. I hope the Coen's film gets in! Just a feel and from what has been going with on with other awards and nominations. 

  1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
  2. Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
  3. Alexander Payne, Nebraska
  4. David O. Russell, American Hustle
  5. Spike Jonze, Her
  • Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
  • Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Jean-Marc Vellée, Dallas Buyers Club
  • Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
  • Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Now, there is no reason that Martin Scorsese should not be in the top five, top three for that matter, but since the reaction from the Academy's screening of his masterful The Wolf of Wall Street, I think he is going to be sitting on the sidelines. Russell and Payne will make it, along with the frontrunners McQueen and Cuarón. Who gets that fifth spot? Will the DGA matter? It did not last year. I am picking Jonze, slightly, but it could easily be Greengrass. Should be Scorsese or the Coen's and it should not even be between these two!!!

  1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
  2. Robert Redford, All Is Lost
  3. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
  4. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
  5. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Forest Whitaker, Lee Dainels' The Butler
  • Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
  • Joaquin Phoenix, Her
  • Christian Bale, American Hustle
  • Micahel B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
No changes here, but after seeing The Wolf of Wall Street, DiCaprio gives his finest performance and is easily one of the best this year. I do not think he will make it due to the backlash from the Academy. Field is very crowded this year, but who would you take out or put in?

  1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
  2. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
  3. Judi Dench, Philomena
  4. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
  5. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
  • Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
  • Amy Adams, American Hustle
  • Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
  • Bérénice Bejo, The Past
  • Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
This is set except for the fifth spot. It will probably go to the legend Meryl Streep, but it would be nice to see a newcomer like Brie Larson or Exarhopoulos or Bejo get in. Sticking with my gut, but I know it will be Streep. Adams is great too, so I would not be disappointed if she gets in either.

  1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
  2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
  3. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
  4. Daniel Brühl, Rush
  5. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
  • Will Forte, Nebraska
  • James Gandolfini, Enough Said
  • Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
  • Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
Much like with DiCaprio, Jonah Hill definitely deserves to be in the top five. The other four are set and Hill might be left out due to the unlikable nature of the film. If he is left out, I think Gandolfini will receive a posthumous nomination and deservedly so. Brühl is in. Hoping Hill is not left.

  1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
  2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
  3. June Squibb, Nebraska
  4. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
  5. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
  • Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
  • Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
  • Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
  • Scarlett Johansson, Her
It is looking like the wonderful performance from Octavia Spencer is going to get nudged out by Julia Roberts. Damn. She is so deserved of a nom for Fruitvale Station. Lawrence is wild and crazy, but she is in and might win, even though she is not even the best in show in American Hustle. It should be Nyong'o all the way.

  1. Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
  2. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
  3. Bob Nelson, Nebraska
  4. David O. Russell & Eric Singer, American Hustle
  5. Spike Jonze, Her
  • Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
  • Alfonso Cuarón & Jonás Cuarón, Gravity
  • Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
  • Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks
Regardless of the WGA nominations, I am sticking with the Coen's. I mean, come on. I feel that Dallas Buyers Club can sneak in, but who gets left out. Could the Coen's or Woody get left out? 

  1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
  2. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
  3. Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
  4. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
  5. Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope, Philomena
  • Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
  • Destin Cretton, Short Term 12
  • Abdellatif Kechiche & Ghalia Lacroix, Blue is the Warmest Color
  • Michael Petroni, The Book Thief
  • Peter Berg, Lone Survivor
I am sticking with these five, but will Winter get in? Should easily, but who knows. I am saying yes for now, but if not, Letts will be there. Or, can Berg sneak in since he got recognized by the WGA?

  1. Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
  2. Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
  3. Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years a Slave
  4. Barry Ackroyd, Captain Phillips
  5. Roger Deakins, Prisoners
  • Frank G. DeMarco, All Is Lost
  • Anthony Dod Mantle, Rush
  • Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska
  • Hoyte Van Hoytema, Her
  • Rodrigo Prieto, The Wolf of Wall Street
Extremely competitive, as always. If any of these five are left out, it might be Ackroyd. The other four are locks and Anthony Dod Mantle or the beautiful black and white from Phedon Papamichael could take Ackroyd's place. Lubezki should finely get his Oscar and Mr. Deakins will have to wait another year.

  1. Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger, Gravity
  2. Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave
  3. Roderick Jaynes (Joel & Ethan Coen), Inside Llewyn Davis
  4. Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers, American Hustle
  5. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Pete Beaudreau, All Is Lost
  • Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips
  • Kevin Tent, Nebraska
  • Jeff Buchanan & Eric Zumbrunnen, Her
Always an exciting category. Will Schoonmaker get in? Will the Coen's get in? Both should, but there are so many great films this year. I feel the American Hustle team will make it, but they should not. Any of the four that are not in my chosen top five should be there. One of the hardest categories to pick. Going with this five.

  1. Stories We Tell
  2. The Act of Killing
  3. 20 Feet from Stardom
  4. Blackfish
  5. The Square
  • Cutie and the Boxer
  • Tim's Vermeer
  • The Armstrong Lie
  • After Tiller
No change.

  1. The Hunt   (Denmark)
  2. The Broken Circle Breakdown   (Belgium)
  3. The Great Beauty   (Italy)
  4. The Notebook   (Hungary)
  5. Omar   (Palestine)
  • Two Lives   (Germany)
  • The Grandmaster   (Hong Kong)
  • The Missing Picture   (Cambodia)
  • An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker   (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
How do they leave Saudi Arabia's Wadjda, Chile's Gloria and Ashgar Farhadi's Iranian entry The Past off the final list? Stupid. 

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